K4 Analysis Kentucky Derby 151

By Kip Keefer

Late Saturday afternoon, in Louisville, Kentucky, 19 three year-old colts will have an opportunity to etch their name in racing and immortality. Whoever crosses the finish line 1st, will be cheered, saluted and remembered always as the winner of the greatest, most significant race in the world of horse racing, this annual rite of spring, has become a worldwide affair with significant contenders coming from Europe, Japan, and the Middle East every year.

This race is characterized by the fact that up to 20 horses can go to the post. Saturday only 19 will lineup because of a training injury to Tappan Street, winner this year of the prestigious, Florida Derby. Another starter has also dropped out. Rodriguez, trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won six run for the roses. Baffert, is back in the Derby for the first time in three years following serving a suspension for several positive tests on previous winners that have indicated banned substances. Rodriguez was removed from the race on Thursday afternoon with a minor quarter crack in one of his hooves. An alternate, Baeza runner up in the Santa Anita. Derby will replace his fellow California based competitor. Rodriguez also won a major prep race to qualify for the Derby, winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York.

So where do we start unraveling this extremely challenging puzzle in an attempt to forecast who might be wearing the roses on Saturday at race end.

All of these horses are three-year-olds, all of them are running further than they’ve ever been asked to run before 1-1/4 miles. none of these horses has ever competed against a field of this gigantic size. And of course, the estimated crowd of approximately 165,000 people, in the most supercharged atmosphere imaginable, is certainly something they have never seen. The name of the sport is HORSE RACING. But on this day, the significance of the other participants, trainers and jockeys, often times play a far more significant role in determining who ultimately wins.

So let’s start with trainers. The array of accomplished handlers is astounding as per usual. In analyzing this race. it always seems that a remarkable storyline is part of the plot year after year.

Bill Mott and Brad Cox, indisputably are two of the greatest trainers in the sport. Both have horses they’ve trained listed as Kentucky Derby winners however, both of these luminary figures in the industry, still desperately want to see their horse cross the finish line 1st. Amazingly, neither has witnessed that previously. Matt train the extreme longshot Country House the race winner in the most controversial Derby in the race is 150 year history. The runaway winner Maximum Security became the only horse in Derby history disqualified after a long deliberation by the Stewards, who ruled he had committed interference in the stretch, impeding other runners.

Matt, now and is 70s, was inducted in the Hall of Fame a number of years ago. However, his success in recent years has been amongst the greatest in his career. He will send number 18.Soverignty to the starting gate. This colt was the winner of the fountain of youth stakes at Gulfstream and runner up in the Florida Derby. His regular rider Junior Alvarado will be on board. His running style is rallying from behind with a powerful stretch drive. There is a great deal of our speed in the race that will make the pace very fast and set up a horse with closing stamina for a great chance of triumphing in the deep stretch.

Brad Cox, has exploded on the scene in recent years and has one several eclipse awards as the top trainer of the year. His derby winner. Mandoulin, also finish second behind Medina spirit from the aforementioned. Baffert barn. Unlike Mott, whose horse was declared the winner on Derby day. Cox horse was not declared derby champ until three or four weeks after the race when Medina Spirit was disqualified for having an illegal substance in his bloodstream

Cox, as mentioned previously, lost his top contender this week Tappan Street to injury. That leaves him with only. #3BigGambit, a considerable longshot. But don’t dismiss this late runner. His training sessions have stood out this week, and there are many whispers that this guy just might be a factor in the very late stages of the race.

The favorite will be a number 8 Journalism. he has been remarkable in California, but his competed in very small field races, including his win in the Santa Anita Derby against only four other competitors. In recent years favorites have not fared well. He certainly has the talent to come through as the top choice in the race, but the massive field may be a major detriment to a talented horse who has had wide open spaces to display his.wares on the West Coast.

Another intriguing runner is #9 Burnham Square. He is trained by veteran Ian Wilkes, making his first Kentucky Derby appearance after a distinguished lengthy career. His horse wants to come from way downtown with a late charge. He recently came from the clouds to somehow prevail in the bluegrass stakes at Keeneland in Kentucky, another major prep race for the Derby.

You may have noticed the trend of picking late runners to have the best chance in this Derby. That’s because there are speed burners, who figured to be highly competitive battling for the early lead. A torrid pace at this longer distance really sets the stage for runners coming from behind overtaking tiring pace setters. Three blazing speedsters figure to square off immediately after the start. #1 Citizen Bull, representing six time winner Baffert. Number 12 Lake Avenue and #20 Owen Almighty. Look for one of these contenders to have the lead as they turn into the homestretch in front of the roaring crowd. Very seldom do you see a front runner with stand the distance and lead in front running fashion all the way to the wire. We will see if 2025 has a different plot line.

The most exciting two minutes in sports. The run for the roses. As the late great singer songwriter, Dan Fogelberg penned in his tribute song to the Derby, Ron For The Roses, an anthem celebrating the greatness of these remarkable thoroughbred athletes…

“From site to site, it’s born in your blood, the fire of a mare and the strength of a stud. It’s breeding and it’s training and it’s something unknown. That drives you and carries you home.

Enjoy this great American tradition that started in 1875 when Artistidrs was the first winner. Little did anyone know 151 years ago what a traditional, magnificent annual spectacle this would become under the twin spires at Churchill Downs.